So, after a whirlwind two days of back-and-forth, top US officials walked out of high-stakes trade talks with China on Sunday claiming “substantial progress.” That’s the phrase they used. And from the way they were talking, it really does sound like a deal — or at least the outline of one — is in place.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer didn’t spill all the details just yet, but they seemed confident something meaningful came out of it. Bessent said the talks were “productive,” and Greer made it clear they believe the deal can help dial back what the White House had called a national emergency.
Now, let’s rewind a bit. Just last month, President Trump dropped a tariff bomb — 145% on most Chinese goods. China fired back with their own 125% slap on US products. It got real, real fast.
Greer pointed out that the agreement came together surprisingly quickly, which could mean the two sides weren’t as far apart as people thought. “Very constructive,” “worked diligently” — those were the words used to describe how it all went down in Geneva, Switzerland.
Trump wasn’t exactly in the dark either. Bessent and Greer briefed him personally. Apparently, he even left room to lower China’s tariff rate to 80%, though the White House later clarified — China had to give something up too.
What’s wild is that just days ago, the Trump camp was managing expectations, saying this would be more of a “first step.” Nobody expected a breakthrough this weekend. Then — boom — there it was.
But before you get too excited, here’s the thing: even if this deal is real, it’s not a magic fix. Those 145% tariffs have already rocked imports. Stuff coming in from China to the US dropped by 60%, according to Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport. That’s massive.
And prices? They’re climbing. Goldman Sachs warned last week that inflation could hit 4% by the end of the year, driven mostly by the trade war. Even if tariffs get slashed in half, economists say it might not be enough to bring trade back to normal. The damage is done, and it won’t undo itself overnight.
Bessent and Greer were tight-lipped about the actual content of the deal, promising more info Monday morning. For now, we know they think it’s a step in the right direction. But how fast will that translate to relief for American shoppers and businesses? That’s a big question mark.
Meanwhile, Chinese factories are feeling the squeeze too. In April, their exports to the US fell hard — $33 billion compared to $41.8 billion last year. That’s a 21% drop. Their manufacturing activity also sank to the lowest level in 16 months. Beijing is now under pressure to do something — and soon.
Looking at the big picture, imports into the US are expected to drop 20% in the second half of 2025. Imports from China? Possibly a jaw-dropping 75–80% drop, according to JPMorgan. That’s not a slowdown — that’s a landslide.
And the American economy? Already wobbling. The latest GDP numbers showed a contraction — the first one since early 2022 — as importers rushed to beat the tariffs. It’s a ripple effect we’re all going to feel.
One extra twist: Trump also said he’d bring up the case of Jimmy Lai, the jailed Hong Kong media tycoon, during talks. Whether that actually happened, no one’s saying.
Bottom line — yeah, this deal sounds promising. But don’t expect lower prices next week. Or even next month.
Read the full report from CNN Business
